Russia and Ukraine- Where is it goiing?

It’s crazy how fast the world can change. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine last week was not a surprise, I still find it surreal that there was relative peace over there a few days ago. 

Like so many, I’m struck by the senselessness of it all. Russia has invaded another sovereign nation in an unjustified and unprovoked attack, and the exact reasons why still aren’t entirely clear. Was it purely for conquest and to take back former Soviet territories? Was it to make a power play against NATO? There’s no obvious reason (that I’ve heard) as far as natural resources or great strategic advantage that makes this move make obvious sense. 

The opening days of this war have been a debacle for Russia. Even if they overtake Kiev, it already seems apparent that they will never be able to occupy Ukraine among fierce resistance efforts and a global community who is increasingly coming to the support of Ukraine. It seems that Putin underestimated Ukraine and overestimated his military. The Russians were ill-prepared and ill-equipped for this invasion and to weather a strong resistance. 

Putin’s miscalculation has done incredible damage to Russia. Looked upon as one of the world’s super powers, this botched invasion has made Russia’s military look incompetent. 

But what happens next? Putin has talked of a nuclear alert in his military, though many see this as little more than saber rattling. It’s still a scary prospect. 

All the while, the people of Russia will suffer for this. I feel bad for both Ukraine and Russia. I feel sorry for Russian soldiers who were thrown into a pointless war. It’s estimated that the Russians have lost more soldiers in less than a week in Ukraine than America lost in nearly nine years in Iraq. The world has ratcheted up economic sanctions against Russia. Russian citizens are going to suffer consequences for a war that I have no doubt that the average Russian never wanted to fight. 

And certainly, I feel bad for the people of Ukraine who have had their lives and country turned upside down. 

In America, for the first time in a long time, I feel like we all agree on an issue that matters. Russia had no right to do what they did. It cannot get much more clear cut of a country being in the wrong. 

I’m not an expert. I’m just sharing my thoughts and observations today. On this day, I’m hopeful that it won’t escalate into a massive global war, but sadly, I could be wrong. But the concern that I have is still that it’s going to get worse before it gets better. What happens with Russia when this is over. Do we just absolve Putin of war crimes? 

Will the western world cut Russia out of the club? I mean, after we figure out how to get away from Russian oil and gas. Or will we continue to condemn and sanction Russia and still be a customer? 

Wisdom of the Crowd

There’s this idea called Wisdom of the Crowd which is about how a greater number of inputs from people is closer to the right answer than what the average individual person would be. The classic example is if you have a jar of jellybeans and are asked to guess how many beans are int he jar, you might end up being way off. But if you have 50 guesses, 100 guesses, and if you average those guesses, it’s often pretty close to accurate. 

I feel like the average person knows that we need to get off of Russian oil. Sadly, politicians often do not have the wisdom of the masses. 

Thanks for reading.